World Championships - Speculation thread

[sprint logic]

Time to start figuring it out. All the meets are about done. We've seen what we're gonna see. So who's gonna do what?

Lashawn Merritt looks like a lock unless Wariner has something up his sleeve we know nothing about. And bronze is WIDE open.

100/200 is a two man show, dependent on the health of Tyson's groin. If it holds up we're in for a ride!

Distances appear to be Kenya and Ethiopia. Pick a couple. Bekele wherever he decides to run, pick em for the rest.

Isinbayeva and Vlasic both appear vulnerable.

Demus seems a near lock in the long hurdles but the women's short hurdles can go to anyone on the day right now - Sally McClellan world champ?

Robles is the class of the field. Which actually has me asking questions about several athletes. Wariner, Trammell, Doc, Rodgers and a few others haven't been seen much. Will they be ready?

Looks like Jamaica men may not have all their pieces in the 4x1 and their women are beat up. So I'm thinkin US sweeps all four relays.

And speaking of the sprints, we know all about Bolt and Gay, who else will make the finals? Quarter too for that matter.

The women's 100 has gone topsy turvy. Looked like the Jeter/Stewart Show. Then Stewart threw down early in Europe with her 10.75. Now Shelly Ann Fraser seems unbeatable. What up?

And no one is running the deuce - not really. So we have no idea, at least on the track. Felix and Campbell should be the horses, but are they ready?

And now that Vessey and Willard are running like they mean it do we have a shot in the middle distances for women? And was Symmonds 1:43.8 the beginning or his peak? I don't think Kaki can be beat.

LOTS to talk about.

[zoser]

Lots to discuss for sure. Let me start with a bomb.

Demus messed up and will take silver. Walker will run her down off the last hurdle in a low 53 race.

Terrence remains a mystery. He is regularly under raced and completely enamored with sprinting, which is baffling. He has a solid chance at the gold but has not hurdled this summer and will get a lesser medal because of it. He has opened himself up to the other hurdlers such as Payne. And where the hell is Aries??? A once powerful and deep event is medicore now.

Dawn Harper remains the odds on favorite to win the short hurdles race and her training group remains on target to sweep all the medals. Monaco was clearly a training moment for Dawn and Ginnie. Not once this season have we seen these young ladies run so badly and they ran badly in tandem. Sally will be a threat as will Lopes, but expect the US women to put on a huge show.

SYmmonds does not possess the wares to medal and I am questioning KD also. They have the ability to run fast 1:43, but they have not shown the consistency to bring home a medal. The 800 is the single most competitive race on the track and also the one most dominated by mediocrity. 1:43 and 1:44 are not where we should see medals won, these guys should be at 1:42 and faster by now. And Kaki will lose in spectacular fashion. I hate to say it, but I have watched his training partners for years, they all have good pr's but have yet to show up when the lights come on.

The US men will lose the 4x100 unless they show some form really fast. The Jamaicans have 2 big guns and all they have to do is get the stick to them. The US will win the women's 4x100 and lose the 4x400. Russia will not come back to Sanya this year. What I am really looking forward to is the men's 4x100 because I think GBR and TRI will be huge challengers to the lesser medals.

[sprint logic]

I agree, Demus may have run her peak race a couple weeks too early. So either she goes 53 low in Berlin or we see something HUGE.

The 110's are suffering from injury. Doucoure got injured. Xiang got injured. Arnold got injured. Otherwise we should be watching an event that would be even better and deeper than the sprints. Instead we have Robles with no one to really challenge him. Trammell is like Clement - too much time in the wrong event. Trammell could be 12.8x but needs to hurdle more. Robles will win in a walk and Trammell might pick up another silver.

Speaking of Clement, I see he's in the open 4 again in Stockholm!

We'll see about Harper. She was on fire for a minute. Then cooled down. If she's on she'll be the favorite, but Ginny has the goods and McClellan is suddenly looking like Kallur.

Note that I didn't even mention KD. He has no idea how to race and Majors are about racing. Symmonds at least knows how to race, question is if he is fast enough. The event is deep, but mediocre and I can this race going in mid to high 1:43. If so that puts Symmonds in the picture. If it goes 1:43 low or better he's done.

The US should win the 4x1, especially if the doping situtation in Jamaica turns out how it should. But we still have the same old issues with team selection and getting the crew in time to be sharp. And that could kill us. I think we still win the women's 4x4. I know what you're looking at - we're not as strong behind Allyson and Sanya as in the past. But I think both will split 48 so if we can get a couple of 50's we're good. And actually, now that I think of it, our best squad would be putting Demus and Tosta on the other two legs. That squad could go 3:16.

Great Britain and Trinidad on the men. Britain maybe. They have a couple of guys that are running well. Not sure about Trinidad. Thompson not running that well. And not sure if the others are running at all. We will see. Watch Japan, Cuba and Brazil - they always find a way to get er done!

[balance]

Those that were mentioned earlier. Trammell, Rogers, Wariner, Patton. The layoff should hurt them just like it did Gay last year. Patton was barely under 10.10 this last race. And Wariner looked like he was having trouble getting under 45 last time he ran.

Seems like we will have a lot of people show up to Berlin not being very sharp.

[sprint logic]

Not sure to put this here or under relays, but watching Stockholm cemented in my mind that the second leg on both the men's and women's squads should have been decided. Felix for the women and Spearmon for the men.

Spearmon finished like a bat out of hell the second half of that 100 - the B race. And Allyson looked like, well, Allyson in that deuce. Both are vets, and have run the leg before in international competition.

While on the subject, Doc looked good in that 100. Good enough to run anchor behind Spearmon and Gay (2,3). Gotta set a lead off, but still leaning towards Crawford. Haven't even seen Rodgers for bout a month. Rae and Williams are sharp and could work on lead off.

[zoser]

I think Doc will be just fine in Berlin and we will see him make his second major final in the 100. Rodgers I am concerned about because I have heard rumors he is injured. IF he is healthy I have no doubts about him making the final and I am picking him to battle Bailey for the bronze.

I thought Wallace and Allyson showed themselves well in Stockholm in tall order. Allyson laid down 11.08 and this blistering 21.87 to let me know that the other young ladies have not done enough to supplant her on that backstretch. More importantly she is the odds on favorite to win the gold and defend her title. I am expecting an 05/07 style Allyson this year. She is excited about her event and she took the loss last season very hard. She is a stand up young lady but a competitor at heart, and she is not kosher with her defeat last summer.
Wallace will be fine, he finally has a string of races to fall back on, and he is a lock for bronze. Shawn will challenge as only Shawn can but from what I saw of Wallace this past weekend, he is shaping up nicely. He is getting some snap back in his legs finally.
Asafa is clearly sitting on talent but I think they have over played their hand and he will succumb to the same weakness he has in the past. There is no substitute for winning and consistency is at the top of the success list. There is no such thing as learning to lose in order to win. Bolt and Tyson will stage a battle we have never seen before. Not Carl v Leroy or Mo v Bruny or Mo v Tim. Mo v Tim is the closest, but this battle is evenly matched and will undoubtedly come down to who runs the better race. I love it. For years folks have talked about the talent and speed of the 100 and dismissed the technical aspects of the race. Well these 2 men are very similar in race pattern and speed and ability. It will be exciting and I am hoping we do not see them matched up until the final.

What has not been discussed is Kerron Stewart. She ran this 200 as a training run, that was clear. What was also clear is she was not comfortable. I am not sure if it was the conditions, the distance or her foot, but she was not at ease yesterday. Makes the relays even more lopsided.

[sprint logic]

Doc looked good. I was happy about that. I would anchor him at this point. And he should be in the final and "should" be in the bronze hunt. No doubt.

Allyson looked like "herself". Nuff said. And Wallace looked like he did back in '06 for me. I liked that 100, yes because he had some pop in his stride, but it also showed that he can get in there BEFORE he gets off the turn. If he can do that he will medal. And I agree his competition for a medal should come from Crawford.

Rodgers went home after his couple of races after getting to Europe. It was said he was injured. I've heard he is not. I will leave it at that.

Powell. I said in another thread that the whole idea of "possumism" makes no sense. If that is the plan then his entire season - and the rest of his career - will hinge on one race, the Berlin final. He's had so many losses this year that even if he wins it will be hard to find him ranking in the top 3. That cuts his pay days. And his performances this year in many races has been lacking. That cuts his pay days. The only way to redeem the season would be to win CONVINCINGLY in Berlin and then say that was the plan all along - Not Gonna Happen.

Let's face it. We're looking at FINALLY getting a Major final with two superb athletes BOTH at the top of their game!!! That hasn't happened in my lifetime! There's always been somebody missing, hurt, etc. We should be in store for something really special.

Stewart is hurt. You can see that that foot just isn't making it for her. That 10.75 came at the wrong time. You know what I've said forever - it ain't how fast you run its when you run fast. We will see another casualty of this this year.

[Seabiscuit]

I am a little concerned. Tyson ran well in the cold but he also seemed a bit unbalanced. That groin thing is affecting his gait and while I think he'll leave it ALL on the track, I am hoping that he simply gets through the 100. I believe he is a better lock in the deuce against Bolt.

Asafa: I agree with Zoser and SL on this one. Losing has NEVER been a strategy (aside from Donovan Bailey in 96). That camp is throwing dung against the wall trying to figure out how to get this guy's head into the game.

Kerron Stewart - Foot injury? I hadn't heard. Wow, that is a shame. She was the horse I would have bet on in the 100m. Allyson looked very smooth in the deuce so I'll pick her; also picking Veronica over ShellyAnn Fraser...karma.

More later.

[zoser]

One thing is crystal clear. Tyson has a better shot in the 100. Not to say the deuce is a foregone conclusion

[sprint logic]

IF Tyson has a better shot in the 100 its because it is first and he could be hurt again by the time the deuce comes along .. Each of his deuces this year has been characterized by a BLAZING turn .. So he will clearly be in the right position coming off the turn .. If the groin is hurt by then then yes he could have trouble in the stretch with Bolt if the race goes somewhere in the 19.4 range - which it should .. But if he can manage the groin then its one hell of a stretch run we get to see between the two ..

Bolt IS most vulnerable in the 100 however .. If Tyson is able to jump on him at the start it could be lights out ..

[zoser]

That is the point, Bolt is most vulnerable at 100. The 200 will be just as epic as the 100 if Tyson can hold up.

Now let's shift gears. Can Jeter break up the Jamaican sweep? Will Lauryn flip the switch and turn into superwoman again? And just how healthy and ready is Muna? The main talk has been about how Jeter will beat out one fo the Jamaican women for a medal and how the gold is a battle between Kerron and Fraser. Well the US is very capable of sweeping. The players on the table make for an intriguing final like never before. Lauryn and Muna have shown little form this summer but that has never stopped Lauryn from medaling in the past not has it been a prerequisite for Muna either.
With the race shaping up to be in the 10.8s for the win AND to medal all 6 ladies remain in the mix. If one can dip into the 10.7s they are virtually guaranteed the gold.

[sprint logic]

Well, the women is a different story .. While the men's race is clearly a two man battle, I agree that there are more than two involved in the women's 100 ..

Stewart is hurt .. At her best she's battling for gold, but right now getting to the final may be a more realistic goal ..

Jeter had a down period after arriving in Europe .. Appears to be back, or nearly back, in form ..

Fraser is in the mold of Powell - gotta jump em early .. But she has shown that if she gets out she can relax and be hard to catch .. Only Stewart or Jeter in form can do that ..

Muna can be in that same mold as Jeter - we saw that at Nationals .. The problem with her is inconsistency - which Muna will show ..

Lauryn has shown the ability to get er done on the day .. But she has looked a bit more "off" than in past seasons ..

All that said, right now I say gold is between Jeter and Fraser, with Laruyn and Muna in a fight for bronze ..

[balance]

Jeter looked real good in June. Has not looked nearly as good since then. Same goes for Stewart. Fraser has looked best lately. But she's really the only person that has. So maybe she has peaked early and everyone else will be ready.

[zoser]

I am going on record to say Jamaica gets one medal out of this race. The US women will come through and bring home 2 medals AGAIN. I am also going on record and saying we will have the SAME three women from 07 grace the podium. Not in the same order.
In a four round format, with all players on their game, I will go with the experienced ones to come through in the clutch. This is my dark horse pick of the year, same three medallists.

[sprint logic]

Well, its not that dark horse of a shot .. We know Stewart is less than her best lately .. Which takes her out of the picture .. Jeter seems to be back on her horse .. And Campbell and Lauryn are uber competitors .. The question is can the three of them keep Fraser off the podium ?? AND what is Lee's status as she could upset the apple cart ..

I'm guessing you're leaning Jeter - VCB - Williams .. Which, based on health, fitness and showing to date would be the most logical order .. With SAF - Lee - Stewart trailing .. Though if Stewart is that hurt McKenzie should slip up to that 6th position .. I need to marinate on that for a bit ..

Let's talk quarter for a minute ...

Women's .. Richards, Ohuruogu, and the Williams girls from Jamaica .. Most consistent .. We have the Russian that just went 49.29, Krivoshapka and Nicola Sanders coming into form .. And yes I know Nicola isi only at 51.2 but she has heart ..

Ohuruogu just seems to know how to win .. Not nearly my favorite but she gets it done .. Same for Nicola .. She just seems to find the podium when healthy .. Richards breaks down under pressure .. And the Russians, well you just never know ... Order anyone ??

Men .. Merritt over Wariner ?? But who for bronze ?? Been a long time since a medal was this wide open in the quarter .. Gillick, Brown, Roberts ?? Or will Clement steal it ??